Fantasy Baseball 2009 Love/Hate List

Two rules to live by:
Don’t reach for a catcher. In a 10 team league that means there will probably be 10-15 catchers owned, meaning there are still 15 other catchers you can draft.
Don’t pay for saves – 1/3 of closers last year lost their jobs at some point last year. I wouldn’t take a closer in the first ten rounds

Players I love
Carl Crawford – Coming off his worst season as a pro he’ll be motivated this year to bounce back
Miguel Cabrera – Career highs in HR and RBIs last year although his average was down, his average will bounce back this year and he’ll finish as a top 3 player
BJ Upton – He’s only going to miss a week at most and after his great postseason last year he should have a career year in 2009
John Smoltz – A lot of upside and not a lot of risk, I wouldn’t take him until the last round though
Matt Holliday – Currently going around 30th overall, he will be a top 20 player this year, the A’s run it more than people think and he should reproduce his 28 steals from last year
Brian Bannister – Had one of the highest BABIPs (Batting Average – Balls in Play) in the league last year at .328 a stat that is usually around .300, this tends to average out year over year, I expect him to have a a good year
Chris Carpenter – currently going in the 18th round of 10 team leagues and he has a ton of upside. He’s had two years off and he should be ready for a strong 2009
Ryan Braun – Currently being drafted at the 8 spot but he’ll finish the year as a top 5 player
Shin Soo Choo – Put up big numbers for Korea in the World Baseball Classic. Batted .343 with 11 HR and 48 RBI after the All-Star break last year
Randy Johnson – Should put up 10 or 11 wins with 140 strikeouts. Perfect stats for a 5th starter
Yovani Gallardo – He pitched in 3 games after his ACL tear and had an ERA under 1, he will finish as a top 15 pitcher this year
Chad Billingsley – His nickname is the buzzsaw… any other questions?
Randy Wolf – Going from a hitters park (Minute maid Park) to a pitchers park (Dodger Stadium) will help him a lot this year
Nelson Cruz – 37 HRs last year in the minors, hit .330 in the majors when he came up late last season
Kyle Davies – 4-1 2.27 ERA in his last 5 starts last year and is pitching for a very underrated Kansas City Royals team (see my season predictions later this week)
Raul Ibanez – Has had 110 RBIs in a terrible Mariners line-up last year this year he’ll have Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard in the lineup with him
Ubaldo Jiminez – 8-3 3.69 75K 89 IPs after the All-Star break last year
Jason Motte – Should lock down the Cardinals closer job. He’s currently being drafted 210th which is undrafted in a standard 10 team league
Tommy hanson – If you’re in a deep league he’s worth your last round pick, he’s been tearing up the minors but probably won’t be in the majors until at least June
Orlando Hudson – Currently being draft in the 200s with Manny, Matt Kemp and Russell Martin in the line-up with him he should have a huge season
JJ Putz – In a deep league he’s worth a shot, if anything happens to K-Rod he’s the closer in New York
Elijah Dukes – He’s not being drafted in most leagues and is worth a spot on your bench. He’s got 20-20 potential and could put up 90 RBIs this year
Javier Vazquez – See Bannister, Brian
Aaron Harang – Had one of the higher HR to Fly Ball (HR/FB) ratios in the league last year, which explains his terrible record, he should bounce back and be a solid 4th fantasy starter this year
Brian Fuentes – See Wolf, Randy

Players I hate
Francisco Rodriquez – Probably the most overrated player in fantasy this year. If he blows a save or two JJ Putz will be there to take his spot. The average number of saves after a 50 save season is 35. I think K-Rod will finish with less than 35 saves, plus like I said earlier, don’t pay for saves.
Derek Jeter – He’s being drafted as the 4th overall shortstop and I don’t think he’ll finish in the top 8. Just because you’re a good real life player doesn’t mean you’re a good fantasy player
Rich Harden – One of the best… when he’s on the field…. He’s averaging 17 starts a year over his first 5 seasons
Hanley Ramirez – If he gets moved to the 3 hole his batting average is 30 points lower than his .320 career average
Mark Teixeira – Cody Ransom protecting him in the lineup for the first two months? The pressures of playing for the New York Yankees? He’s traditionally a second half player and by the time he heats up it may be too late
Vladimir Guerrero – Currently being drafted high based on his name recognition his numbers are nearly identical to Brad Hawpe’s who’s going 10 rounds later
Alexei Ramirez – The 2nd most overhyped player this year next to K-Rod
Alfonso Soriano – If he stays healthy then he’s a good pick but I don’t see how an injury prone player like him plays the full season
Todd Wellemeyer – Don’t get cute, one of the lowest BABIPs last year and that will rise this year
Derek Lowe – Going from one of the most pitcher friendly parks (Dodger Stadium) to one that favors hitters (Turner Field)
Ryan Dempster – See Wellemeyer, Todd
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Had one of the lowest HR/FB ratios in the league last year, plus he rarely made it out of the 5th inning. He’s a player based on name recognition, which means he’s going too early for what he’s worth
Joe Mauer – He’s a top 3 catcher when healthy and he’s being drafted as so this year, but he’s NOT healthy. He’s not going to be playing the whole season. Save your catcher pick utnil late
Ian Kinsler – He’s a borderline top 20 player when he’s healthy but he couldn’t stay healhty last year and I don’t see how this year will be any different

Comments 1

  • agree with most except your 2nd rule to live by. cant post why but you will see in our leagues this year. or check last years.

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